With the regular season entering the home stretch, predicting how the standings will shake out at the top remains a daunting task. This weekend’s games, however, could provide some clarity with each of the top four teams in action. Dmitry Gerchikov gives analysis on the stakes for each of these teams.
Khimki. Crunch time for Ivanovic
Here’s a paradox. Moscow Region had some impressive wins over strong teams during the regular season, including a dominant victory against UNICS and gritty wins vs. Lokomotiv. Don’t forget the hard-earned victories in the Eurocup. But fair or not, the Yellow-Blues are remembered more for coming up short in the biggest games. Take, for example, the matchup with CSKA. After 25 minutes of competitive basketball, Khimki fell apart defensively and went cold on offense. Or the quarterfinals in Europe, where an up-tempo Valencia took on a chaotic, run-and-gun opponent that was overly reliant on Alexey Shved. In both instances, it felt like Khimki always had something to say, but got tongue-tied at the worst possible moment and couldn’t deliver.
That’s why the stakes are so high for Dusko Ivanovic right now. Hosting CSKA, he has an opportunity to prove that the BCMO is a fortress for the Yellow-Blues, not just a burrow for the Hedgehog. It’s also a chance to trim CSKA’s lead in the standings and get revenge for the loss in Moscow. Finally, Ivanovic can convince the front office to stay the course and give him another year to execute his vision for the team.
The time for experiments has passed. The Balkan coach needs to show his hand now; otherwise, Khimki could be headed for a disappointing early exit in Krasnoyarsk or somewhere similar a month from now.
CSKA. Playing under pressure
You might think the champs don’t have anything to worry about, leading the VTB United League with only two defeats and a spot in the EuroLeague quarterfinals. The team is getting healthy, too, and the top players are starting to click. CSKA feels like it has enormous resiliency, which can carry the team to repeat titles, even if there are a few speed bumps along the way.
Nonetheless, Dimitris Itoudis’s brow remains furrowed. Week to week, he sees warning signs that keep him laser-focused on getting better. The Army Men struggled against Vitoria’s guards in the EuroLeague, the perimeter was exposed against Zenit, Zalgiris sprung an upset and Fenerbahce toppled CSKA in Istanbul… Even when everyone is clicking, Itoudis is on guard, looking to anticipate and prevent even the slightest glitch in the system. Otherwise, the problems could begin to snowball, something CSKA would prefer to avoid.
The matchup with Khimki is an excellent opportunity to once again review the troops in action. The Yellow-Blues have historically given CSKA trouble, especially at home. Plus, Moscow Region needs the win more, adding extra intensity to the game.
Showdowns like this often reveal shortcomings in the CSKA system and will let us see if the coaching staff has anticipated and found solutions. An affirmative response from Itoudis will erase doubt, but a setback would only increase the pressure on the team right before it enters the knockout stage of the season.
Zenit. Did Karasev invent a perpetual motion machine?
Since the beginning of the regular season, skeptics have been waiting for the Blue-White-Sky Blues to stumble. Sure, Golden State was able to prove everyone wrong, but you can’t expect similar success without a Steph Curry or some other superstar on the roster, right? After the blowout loss to CSKA in November and setbacks to UNICS and Loko, gleeful cries of “SEE, WE TOLD YOU!” flooded the media, accompanied by predictions of a collapse in St. Petersburg.
But Vasily Karasev’s men took the disrespect to heart, picking up wins in the EuroCup, while quilting together an 11-game winning streak in the VTB United League that has yet to be broken. On Saturday, the team that knocked Zenit out of Europe and won convincingly in St. Petersburg will try to snap the streak. Correspondingly, Karasev will need to demonstrate that his team can work on its mistakes in real time and adjust to playing against a system that has caused massive headaches in the past.
The Blue-White-Sky Blues will also have a chance to prove their resilience. If Timma, Karasev, Toolson and the recently added Harper get comfortable in a quick tempo, then Loko’s aggressive defense could end up being a trap. Zenit won’t be able to slip through Loko’s net (take the EuroCup as a recent example) very easily. That’s why it will be fascinating to see how Zenit’s coach tries to extricate his team from Loko’s wiles.
Lokomotiv. Crisis of faith in Obradovic
Krasnodar fans suffered disappointment last week in the EuroCup and desperately want a win to restore confidence in the team. Sasa Obradovic, who rescued Loko from a disastrous start to the season, restored hope in a happy ending to the 2016-17 season. It wasn’t just the lengthy winning streak in the VTB United League or steady progression to the EuroCup semis. The Red-Greens began developing a sharp identity under their coach’s direction. The team ran smoothly, the rotation grew defined and efficient and everyone bought in. Most importantly, the team’s ability to rally together and share the dirty work became the biggest reason for Loko’s victories in close games.
Right when it seemed like there were only blue skies ahead, disaster struck. The Railwaymen lost back-to-back games to CSKA and Khimki in the League, then the EuroCup run ended in the semifinals against Unicaja, hurting Loko’s chances of winning a EuroLeague bid. Even worse, Loko played some of its worst basketball of the season, exposing flaws that had otherwise been hidden by the team’s prolonged success. Of course, the temptation was there to blame the team’s shaky preseason, which failed to prepare the team for a grueling campaign. Or point fingers at mistakes made by Fotios Katsikaris, which started popping up again in March. But Obradovic had already convinced everyone in Krasnodar that every deficiency had been addressed and that he was working feverishly over the winter to build a new collective. Obradovic was on such a roll, rumor had it Loko’s front office was looking to offer a two-year extension. And, then, a sudden setback…
Given the circumstances, Loko must be delighted to be playing Zenit. On the other hand, Loko embarrassed Zenit in the EuroCup, which means it knows how to defeat its opponent and get back to winning. On the other hand, Zenit’s quick, aggressive, modernized roster is the perfect test for Lokomotiv and should plumb the depths of Krasnodar’s crisis. If the home team can’t match Zenit’s creativity or speed, they’ll need to consider making some serious changes. But if Loko comes out on top, the fans can exhale in relief and begin looking forward to the start of the playoffs.
