In the best-of-three quarterfinal series Zenit will face PARMA.
Where and When
Game 1. May 11, 20:00 msk, Saint Petersburg, Sibur Arena
Game 2. May 13, 17:30 msk, Perm, UDS Molot
Game 3. May 15, 17:00 msk, Saint Petersburg, Sibur Arena*
* – if necessary
Regular season
Zenit: 1st (20 wins and 4 defeats)
PARMA: 8th (10 wins and 14 defeats)
Regular season head-to-head meetings
In the regular season PARMA was one of the most uncomfortable opponents for the Saint Petersburg. In the first meeting, Zenit controlled the game, but the Ural players fought for every possession and didn’t let their opponent get away with it. Will Thomas’ performance in the third quarter was key to Zenit’s success. The American scored 16 points in one quarter, allowing Zenit to pull ahead and pull out a comfortable win.
The second meeting came just a month later. Zenit had already guaranteed first place in the regular season and came into the game without Xavi Pascual, Mateusz Ponitka and Kevin Pangos. Head coach and team leaders’ absence didn’t stop Zenit from playing first, but this time PARMA was more aggressive. Ural pulled their opponent to clutch, which was decided by a free throw from Adas Juskevicius – 78-76. It was the first time PARMA beat Zenit at home.
Why Zenit can win the series?
Last Friday, Zenit lost to Barcelona in the battle for a place in the Euroleague Final Four and ended their performance in the tournament. Petersburg fought equally against the winner of the regular season, dragging their quarterfinal series to a maximum of five games.
The main creator of Zenit’s success was Xavi Pascual, voted the best coach in the VTB United League for the 2020/21 season. Under the Spaniard, the club from St. Petersburg plays ultimate pragmatic, disciplined basketball: Only Barcelona has allowed less points in the Euroleague, and in the VTB League they have the best record – 71.6 points per game on average.
But, if Zenit are okay defensively, there are problems in offense. Mateusz Ponitka and Arturas Gudaitis’ injuries are to blame. The loss of two key players, who combined for 19.7 points for Zenit, was a serious headache for the coaching staff. Kevin Pangos stepped up to the plate: In his series with the Catalans, the Canadian scored 16.2 points and dished out 7.2 assists. Pangos will be a big factor for the St. Petersburg in their offensive schemes against Perm.
Home court advantage should also be helpful for Zenit: In the League, St. Petersburg has lost only 1 of 12 home games.
Why PARMA can win the series?
PARMA are play-offs debutant, but their underdog status certainly suits them well. Of all the teams in the top four in the regular season, only UNICS has not lost to Perm even once. Ural were excellent in the FIBA Europe Cup as well – in their debut European club season they advanced to the European Final Four.
In spite of their success PARMA had a difficult and unstable season. Victories alternated with long losing streaks for Kazys Maksvytis’ wards, and the question of making the playoffs was removed only in the final games of the regular season. Much of the Ural team’s play depended on the health of Adas Juskevicius, the team’s most outstanding player and one of the candidates for MVP honors. The Lithuanian is equally accurate from mid-range (50%) and long-range (40.9%), while his ability to explode at the right moment and solve the game on his own may be crucial in the blowout stages. His participation in the series with Zenit is questionable, however – he was injured in the FIBA Cup semifinals and is currently recovering.
In addition, PARMA is one of the best teams in terms of shooting percentage from beyond the arc – 38.2% and 5th place in the League. When Permians are in trouble, they can handle any opponent. But they can’t win a series on their emotions alone. Over the long run, can Ural outplay Zenit, who have been staying focused and following their coaches’ instructions as much as possible? At least there’s a chance. The main task for PARMA – Disrupt the consistency of Zenit and pull them into the end zone, where the open-air enthusiasm can overpower their experience.
X-factor
Leaders’ health.
Much will depend on the condition in which the teams approach the series. Because of the European comptitions the rivals have to prepare on a tight schedule. And here the Ural team has a slight advantage: PARMA finished European League season on April 25, while the Petersburg team played its last game on May 4.
During the short break the teams must not only rest, but also get the most important players recovered. Limiting rotation in the playoffs is a common practice, but it’s unlikely the coaches expected injuries to determine the depth of their roster. The question is more acute for Perm. Without Ponitka and Gudaitis, Zenit’s offense looks severely limited, while without Juskevicius, PARMA’s offense is virtually impossible to imagine. Will the opponents have enough time to rebuild their game and gain the optimal conditions?
