We are witnessing one of the most competitive regular seasons in League history. With a month and a half remaining on the schedule, only two of 13 teams–UNICS and CSKA–have clinched playoff berths. That means 11 teams are battling for a place in the top eight.
Zenit and Lokomotiv are on the verge of wrapping up postseason appearances, each needing two more wins to seal the deal. But what about places 5-8? Let’s break down the remaining nine teams’ chances.
Khimki
Standings: 5th place
Record: 9-9
Schedule: Kalev (H), PARMA (A), Tsmoki-Minsk (A), Avtodor (A), Lokomotiv-Kuban (H), Enisey (A)
Last year’s runner-up has had to expend a lot of energy on the EuroLeague this season, which may have been a factor in the surprising losses to VEF, Kalev and Astana.
The team has also been beset by injuries with six games remaining on the schedule, including match-ups against Loko and Avtodor. But the schedule could be worse and Khimki should have enough wins banked to make the playoffs without trouble. The team’s primary focus will be on peaking in late spring for the EuroLeague and VTB United League playoffs.
Avtodor
Standings: 6th place
Record: 8-8
Schedule: Zenit (A), UNICS (H), Tsmoki-Minsk (A), VEF (H), PARMA (A), Khimki (H), Nizhny Novgorod (A), Astana (A)
Avtodor has been the biggest surprise of the season. After Evgeny Pashutin took over in mid-November, Saratov became a force in the League, winning six of his first nine games to put pressure on 5th-place Khimki.
Despite back-to-back losses in March, Saratov is at little risk of missing the postseason. Upcoming games vs. Zenit and UNICS could drop the club as low as 8th, but there’s no need to panic. Avtodor has five very winnable games remaining where it’s likely to be favored, not to mention a home game vs. Khimki that could decide the race for 5th place.
Astana
Standings: 9th place
Record: 6-12
Schedule: Lokomotiv-Kuban (A), Enisey (A), UNICS (A), Kalev (H), VEF (A), Avtodor (H)
If we take out Khimki and Avtodor, seven teams are competing for the final two spots. Of the bunch, Astana has the best shot at reaching the postseason.
Why? First, because Astana has the easiest schedule: only two opponents from the top five in the remaining six games (Loko, UNICS), plus two home games against teams ranked beneath them. That’s a much easier path than 7th and 8th-place ranked PARMA and Nizhny Novgorod.
Second, Astana has impressed since switching coaches, winning four of its last six games, even with Artem Komolov’s ridiculous buzzer-beater in Nizhny Novgorod. The Kazakh club has a good chance of making the playoffs for the second consecutive season.
Nizhny Novgorod
Standings: 7th place
Record: 6-10
Schedule: VEF (A), PARMA (A), CSKA (H), Enisey (H), Zenit (H), UNICS (A), Avtodor (H), Lokomotiv-Kuban (H)
Nizhny has had to overcome its fair share of bad luck. Zoran Lukic’s roster plays entertaining, attractive basketball, but missed several opportunities for statement wins, losing five games by three points or less to top five teams.
That’s why the team desperately needed Komolov’s miracle shot vs. Astana and the road win in Minsk. Without those results, Nizhny would have dropped to 12th place.
It’s tough to predict Nizhny’s chances down the stretch. On the one hand, the team has only played 16 games, fewer than almost everyone else in the playoff chase, and could pick up a lot of W’s over the final seven weeks. On the other hand, Nizhny’s closing schedule is brutal: Zenit, UNICS, Avtodor and Lokomotiv, plus a home game vs. CSKA at the start of April. The team is also in the midst of the FIBA Cup playoffs with a quarterfinal series vs. Venezia already underway.
Four of the team’s final five games will be played at home and could present an opportunity for an upset. Zoran Lukic’s team has won two of three since the All-Star break and looks much better on defense. We’ll see if they can continue their success in April and May.
Tsmoki-Minsk
Standings: 11th place
Record: 6-12
Schedule: Kalev (A), Khimki (H), Avtodor (A), Enisey (A), VEF (H), Zenit (A)
Minsk turned heads at the beginning of the season, briefly sharing 5th place with Khimki thanks to a 3-3 start. But six straight losses over the winter severely damaged the team’s playoff hopes, leaving the Belarusians with a 4-11 record.
Alexander Krutikov’s men bounced back with wins over PARMA and Lokomotiv early in March. Despite a loss to Nizhny Novgorod over the weekend, Minsk has every chance of reaching the postseason for the first time in club history.
The team’s fate could be decided on the road with away games vs. Kalev and Enisey looming large on the schedule. Consistency will be the key for Minsk. Despite the win over Loko and one-point defeat to Zenit, Tsmoki has lost several very winnable outings. There’s little margin for error now.
VEF
Standings: 10th place
Record: 6-12
Schedule: Nizhny Novgorod (H), UNICS (A), Avtodor (A), Lokomotiv-Kuban (H), Astana (H), Tsmoki-Minsk (A)
VEF was last in the League with a 1-10 record, but five wins in seven games have boosted the Latvians into 10th place, within reach of the postseason. High-energy play and stifling defense have been the keys to VEF’s turnaround.
Ken Brown is leading the resurgence. The guard signed with VEF in mid-January, debuting in an 82-70 win over Tsmoki-Minsk. Since then, the Latvians have only lost to CSKA and Zenit with wins over Khimki and PARMA. Brown is averaging 14 points and 4.6 assists at VEF.
Like Tsmoki, the only top five opponents remaining on the schedule are UNICS and Loko. At the same time, VEF has already played 18 games, more than any other teams in the playoff hunt. As a result, the Latvians have little margin for error in games against Nizhny, Astana and Tsmoki-Minsk.
VEF wraps up a five-game homestand on Sunday vs. Nizhny Novgorod. The outcome of that game could end up deciding the team’s fate.
PARMA
Standings: 8th place
Record: 6-11
Schedule: Enisey (H), Nizhny Novgorod (H), Khimki (A), Lokomotiv-Kuban (A), Avtodor (H), UNICS (H), CSKA (H)
PARMA fans were promised a playoff appearance at the beginning of the season and the team has largely lived up to the hype, consistently ranking in the top eight. The team’s 2-4 record since late January, however, including losses to VEF and Tsmoki-Minsk, could spell trouble down the stretch.
The next two games are huge. After playing Enisey and Nizhny Novgorod at home, Perm finishes the season with a brutal five-game stretch against five of the League’s top six teams.
There is one caveat to the murderer’s row of opponents. The final three games will be played at home, and could present an opportunity for an upset or two, especially if their opponents have already locked in a playoff seed. PARMA has never defeated a team from the top five, but this could be the perfect time to start.
Kalev
Standings: 11th place
Record: 6-13
Schedule: Khimki (A), Tsmoki-Minsk (H), CSKA (H), Zenit (A), Astana (A)
Kalev won two games in a week, but still didn’t move up in the standings. How is that possible?
It’s simple. The Estonians had lost too much ground during the season, losing 13 of 17 before the recent turnaround. Unfortunately for Kalev, the schedule down the stretch is daunting, featuring match-ups with Khimki, CSKA and Zenit.
The Estonians do have one win already vs. Khimki, however, and Isaiah Briscoe has been a revelation, averaging 21.2 points per game (2nd in the League). Donaldas Kairys and co. may be underdogs, but it’s a little early to write off Kalev entirely.
Enisey
Standings: 13th place
Record: 3-13
Schedule: PARMA (A), Astana (H), Nizhny Novgorod (A), UNICS (H), Zenit (H), Tsmoki-Minsk (H), Lokomotiv-Kuban (A), Khimki (H)
Enisey has been a mystery. After nearly finishing 5th in 2017, Krasnoyarsk is bringing up the rear this season with a 3-13 record. Is it because stars Frank Elegar and Tony Taylor left town? Or did the Champions League schedule prove too much for the Siberian club?
In any case, Enisey is on the verge of elimination from the playoff chase. There are eight games remaining, but four of those are against top five teams, meaning Enisey will likely need to spring an upset or two and beat everyone else to have a shot at reaching the postseason. The playoffs start now for Krasnoyarsk.
