The weekend’s marquee match-up features Nizhny vs. Zenit.
Where:
Nizhny Novgorod Trade Union Sports Palace (capacity 5,500), Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
When:
5:00 PM (5:00 MSK), April 22, 2018
TV:
VTB-League.com
Face to Face
Zenit has proved a bad match-up for Nizhny Novgorod in recent seasons. The Volga club has lost five in a row, but the first meeting between these teams in 2017-18 gave reason to believe St. Petersburg’s winning streak could end soon.
Zoran Lukic’s men were in control most of the game, leading by eight points entering the 4th quarter. But Kyle Kuric and Sergey Karasev were able to guide St. Petersburg to a comeback 92-89 win. Perhaps playing at home will help tip the scales in Nizhny’s favor on Sunday.
Looking Back
Intrigue
There aren’t many games left in the regular season and both Zenit and Nizhny Novgorod have a lot at stake in this contest. The home team is tied for 7th place with PARMA and VEF (7-13), with Tsmoki-Minsk (7-14) and Astana (6-15) in hot pursuit. The fierce competition makes every game feel like a must win. Nizhny Novgorod was dealt a serious setback last weekend, losing to Enisey. Another defeat could drop them out of the playoff zone.
Unlike Nizhny, Zenit (14-5) has already clinched a spot in the postseason, but need to keep winning to stay in front of Lokomotiv-Kuban (13-6) for 3rd place. Kuban will do everything it can to catch Zenit, needing only a tie in the standings to edge out St. Petersburg.
Balance of Power
Both Zenit and Nizhny Novgorod are 3-3 in their last six games, making it difficult to predict the outcome in this game. Zenit should be the favorite, but somewhat shaky offense and inconsistent play (take the 93-79 loss at home to Avtodor) means no one would be surprised by a Nizhny Novgorod win. Meanwhile, the Volga club has been competitive vs. other top teams in the League and will not be afraid of Zenit.
X-Factor
Zenit’s 3-pointers.
Under Vasily Karasev, Zenit has stuck to a simple, yet effective offensive strategy over the past three seasons. The key elements are blistering transition offense and lots of 3-pointers. It’s tough to overestimate the importance of perimeter shooting in Zenit’s system. Simply compare the shooting percentages between the team’s wins and losses. Zenit’s snipers are reliable and dangerous in wins, but the percentages drop significantly in losses.
It’s hard to predict which team will show up on Sunday, but the past seven games have not been very good for Zenit’s three-point percentage.
Zenit’s three-point field-goal percentage
Wins: 8.9 – 24.4 (36.3%)
Losses: 6.0 – 22.2 (27.0%)
Last seven games: 7.1 – 22.7 (31.4%)
Duel
Stevan Jelovac vs. Sergey Karasev.
Jelovac is hugely important to Nizhny’s offense. The forward ranks in the top five in the League in points (19.8), efficiency rating (19.4) and rebounds (6.7). He also holds the all-time VTB United League record for points scored in a game, missing the half-century mark by one point in a win over Kalev earlier this season.
Jelovac’s influence on the team is easily seen in the statistics. When Jelovac plays well, Nizhny is much more likely to win.
Stevan Jelovac’s stats in the VTB League
Wins: 23.9 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.1 bpg, 26.4 efficiency rating
Losses: 17.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.2 bpg, 15.5 efficiency rating
Sergey Karasev has also struggled with consistency this season. The first meeting with Nizhny Novgorod is a good example. The forward scored 10 points, shooting only 3-8 from the field. At the same time, his performance late in the game helped Zenit pull out a win. He’s likely to play a big role again on Sunday.
Quotes
Nizhny Novgorod head coach Zoran Lukic:
– After our awful, you might say, disgusting game vs. Enisey we only have four games remaining to show whether or not we deserve to be in the playoffs. It’s very simple: Either you come out on top or you get buried. The clock starts ticking vs. Zenit.
Zenit head coach Vasily Karasev:
– We’ve got a very tough road game ahead. Nizhny is playing solid basketball. They are always good at home. They lost to Enisey in their last game and now they desperately need a win to make the playoffs. As for us, we’ve paid a little more attention to our offense in practices. I hope we’ll start to make our shots in the upcoming game.
