After several big weekend games, Albert Husainov looks back on the first month of the season and tries to predict the future.
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The snow starts to fall in November, foreign players begin to realize where they are… Meanwhile, two showdowns over the weekend, Khimki vs. UNICS and CSKA vs. Zenit, were supposed to help capture the balance of power this season. Which teams are clicking in November? Are they prepared to face other contenders? We’ve got some interesting answers.
Khimki – UNICS
UNICS looked exhausted: Hamstrung by injuries, with reinforcements yet to arrive, not to mention Thursday’s wild victory over Fenerbahce. That’s not something you recover from quickly. The cheers of the Turkish fans were probably still ringing in Kazan’s ears.
Khimki, on the other hand, was calm and focused prior to the game. Dusko Ivanovic made it clear right away that solving UNICS wouldn’t be a big challenge. Khimki doubled up Langford and Colom on the perimeter, slowing down the Kazan leaders already in the 1st quarter.
Keith and Quino are pros, though, and found ways around the aggressive double-teaming: Pauses, slipping through defenders–the visitors managed to get back in the game and narrow the deficit. But Khimki still landed the first punch, and except for Kazan’s mini-charge in the 2nd quarter, the home team led the entire game. Plus, coach Ivanovic figured out how to get his compatriot Todorovic on track, and the scrawny Montenegrin did a good job of shutting down the powerful, but worn-out Parakhouski, which came as a total surprise.
Unfortunately for UNICS, Langford and Colom play big minutes and are expected to do a lot of the work, especially on offense. Counting on them to also stop Khimki’s aggressive backcourt of Shved, Rowland, Boungou-Colo, Pullen may have been too much.
UNICS couldn’t handle Khimki’s attack, conceding a big game in the battle for 2nd place, and by a wide margin. Khimki looked well-coached and had terrific chemistry and confidence. Did UNICS have the resources right now to make this competitive? Objectively speaking, no.
The team is waiting on reinforcements from across the ocean (Orlando Johnson and Lorenzo Wright are chomping at the bit), but that’s the situation now.
CSKA – Zenit
To be honest, during the game I couldn’t tell what CSKA had planned on defense against Zenit. But it really made no difference, because Zenit looked utterly helpless. De Colo was great at getting to the rim, Hines looked terrific moving in the pick-and-roll, Fridzon knocked down 3’s, and on and on. CSKA looked like a team on audition, desperate to show its best, while Zenit looked like a pale, worn-out shadow of itself.
St. Petersburg does have some legitimate excuses. The team was missing Karasev and Timma, both experienced players and deadly shooters, who play a key role in Vasily Karasev’s up-tempo style. They wouldn’t have been afraid of this stage. Plus, the team’s newest signing, super-rebounder Trevor Mbakwe, wasn’t available. Not to mention, who looks good at the USH CSKA against the reigning champions anyway? Virtually no one. Zenit is probably saying: Let’s forget about this outcome and wait till we’re at full strength, then we’ll see.
Right, just forget about it… Well, it’s not always that easy. Off the top of my head, I can’t remember a team in Europe that lost by 49 in a game that counted, then went on to make noise in the playoffs. I’m afraid these types of losses go deep into a player’s psyche: “We collapsed, they smashed us, we can’t do it…” Can Vasily Karasev and co. erase the memories of this game?
Conclusion
It’s silly to make predictions in November, but so, so tempting. It takes a lot of nerve, at this stage, to say you know what’s going to happen. But what if these recent games did reveal something to experts of in-depth analysis and prognosticating? Let’s give it a shot.
CSKA. Frontrunners
Khimki. The star-studded backcourt lights up the perimeter and gets into the lane at will, Todorovic matures and becomes a double-double machine, newcomer Jeremy Evans dunks on everyone and cleans up the glass. Ivanovic has a specific role for everyone on defense and Khimki slows down every opponent…
Or… Khimki’s guards get selfish and refuse to share the ball, while the big men struggle to get involved. Ivanovic is not pleased and goes into dictator-mode, and the players protest in response.
Zenit. Vasily Karasev does a good job of divvying up responsibilities. Markovic distributes the ball, Toolson drains 3-pointers from nine meters out, Timma and Karasev are also huge, Landry looks like Pau Gasol, Desyatnikov has a couple big baskets in the paint every game, while Vasily Karasev’s active subbing helps the team maintain a frenetic pace and outrun any opponent.
Or… The rotation gets messy, players don’t have time to understand their roles, and more organized teams, like CSKA on Sunday, have no problem breaking down Zenit’s up-tempo approach.
UNICS. The reinforcements make life easier for Langford and Colom. They get more rest and stay fresh late in games, the team runs like clockwork thanks to Pashutin’s simple, effective approach, plus the brutal competition in the Euroleague gives Kazan plenty of confidence when it comes to VTB United League opponents.
Or… Adding fresh talent doesn’t do anything to complicate Evgeny Pashutin’s system, with opponents quickly catching on (thanks in part to Ivanovic’s success on Sunday), with Euroleague fatigue also taking its toll on the club.
Lokomotiv-Kuban. The team needs a little extra time, but eventually catches fire: Khvostov gets the big men and Broekhoff involved, nobody can keep up with Rochestie, Vougioukas continues to be effective on offense…
Or… The team’s defensive deficiencies in the starting five are exposed against talented offensive teams. Lokomotiv isn’t able to find the right balance between players that play defense and those that prefer offense.
At the end of the day, nothing is clear, which is a very good thing. Any game between these teams (except, maybe, CSKA at home) should be very entertaining and feature terrific coaching, good competition, and unpredictable outcomes. Stay tuned!
