Time and place
Game 1. April 26,13:00(Moscow Time), St. Petersburg, CSC Arena
Game 2. April 28, 20:00 (Moscow Time), St. Petersburg, CSC Arena
Game 3. May 2, 17:00(Moscow Time), Yekaterinburg, GAUSO DIVS
Game 4. May 4, 17:30 (Moscow Time) Yekaterinburg, GAUSO DIVS*
Game 5. May 7, 19:30 (Moscow Time), St. Petersburg, CSC Arena*
* – if necessary
Regular Season
Zenit: 3rd place (28 wins and 12 losses)
Uralmash: 6th place (19 wins and 21 losses)
Rivalry history this season
Zenit came out on top in the season series (3-1), but that doesn’t mean it was an easy ride for the St. Petersburg team. The outcome of the first two games was decided in the final minutes. In October in St. Petersburg, the guests reduced the deficit to 5 points with 30 seconds remaining, having trailed by 15 points during the game. But in the remaining time, the hosts coolly closed out the game for a 91-86 win. In the December game in Yekaterinburg, the hosts were even closer to a win, trailing by just 2 points with a minute to go. However, Trent Frazier became the hero of that game with 20 points. Among other things, the point guard made a three-pointer at the end that was decisive – 86:79.
It is worth noting that the first two games took place before the head coaches were replaced on both teams. In the February matchup, Anton Yudin was the head coach of Uralmash, while Dejan Radonjic led Zenit. The St. Petersburg team secured a decisive 18-point win in that matchup. Zenit displayed aggressive defense from the very start, which allowed to control the game. The St. Petersburg team made 13 steals, limiting the opponent to only 60 points for the game.
The Ural team managed to get revenge in the April game, which was in St. Petersburg. In that game, both teams needed a win to advance. Dejan Radonjic team went into halftime leading 41-39. However, the second half belonged to the Yekaterinburg team. Anton Yudin team relied on long-range shots, making 12 three-pointers in the game. Zenit, in turn, struggled to score in the final quarter, allowing Uralmash to secure a confident win – 82:69.
Why can Zenit win?
Throughout the regular season, the St. Petersburg club has outperformed its upcoming opponent in scoring, field goal percentage, and other stats. The most important of these is the number of turnovers: Zenit loses the ball less often than any other team—11.4 turnovers per game. The Ural team averages 14.2 turnovers. In elimination games, the turnover factor will be crucial.
Another crucial asset for Zenit is Dejan Radonjic. Since his arrival, the team has put together a nine-game winning streak. Led by the Montenegrin coach, the St. Petersburg team has recorded 13 wins and three losses in the VTB League. The coaching staff has managed to find balance in the team’s play, integrated the newcomers, and distributed roles effectively among the star players.
Zenit’s roster looks more impressive on paper than their opponent’s. It features both star internationals and experienced Russian players. In addition, the St. Petersburg team have recalled Igor Volkhin and Pavel Zemskii from loans. Both players had the best seasons of their careers with Avtodor and will certainly add depth to the St. Petersburg squad. The quality of these players should be one of the key factors in Zenit’s future wins.
Why can Uralmash win?
The Ural team had an inconsistent regular season. Wins over the leaders were followed by unexpected losses to weaker opponents. However, the change of head coach played a role. Led by Anton Yudin, the team managed to climb the standings and finish the regular season on a positive note. They secured four consecutive wins, including wins over UNICS and their playoffs opponent, Zenit. Uralmash defeated the St. Petersburg team right at home, which once again confirms their readiness for road games.
5 Uralmash players average 10 or more points per game (Garrett Nevels, Octavius Ellis, Tyrell Nelson, Timofei Gerasimov, and Hayden Dalton). There is no clear leader in Uralmash’s lineup, which makes things difficult for opponents. At the right moment, any of the players can take control of the game and decide the outcome.
X-Factor
Mental toughness will be key for both teams in this matchup. The Yekaterinburg team finished the regular season on a high note, but Zenit remains the contender. This could work against it. If the St. Petersburg team underestimates the opponent, Zenit could lose this series.
Motivation will be even more crucial for Uralmash. While underestimation is a danger for the St. Petersburg team, for the sixth-place team in the regular season, a super-charged mindset could work in its favor. Last season, the ambitious Yekaterinburg club lost to Loko in the quarterfinals (1-3). In the recently concluded regular season, the Ural team once again failed to impress and fell short of expectations, despite significant investments and a strong roster. Perhaps this year they will become the underdog that causes an upset. The Ural team has never advanced past the first round in its history, and the coveted semifinal is an additional incentive for them.
Facts
Head-to-head record: 11-4, Zenit leads. The Ural team won the last face-off.
Zenit leads the league in free-throw percentage (79.2%) and has the fewest turnovers (11.4) this season.
Trent Frazier (90) and Garrett Nevels (88) lead the league in three-pointers made this season.
Andrei Martiuk leads the league in two-point percentage this season at 67.2%.
Head-to-head stats for the 3rd vs. 6th seed matchups in the quarterfinals since the 2014/15 season, when the VTB United League moved away from dividing teams into groups: 26-4.
Uralmash is the only playoff team that has performed better on the road (11-9) than at home (8-12) this season.
Sergey Karasev is the only remaining player from Zenit’s 2022 title-winning roster.
